Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes: NBA Style

We're only a few moments away from the Christmas kick-off to this strange NBA season. Just like every other year, a bunch of players are going to step it up this go-around, bust out of mediocrity, join the fold of big-time production, while others who have been near the top, having brought it for a while, will undoubtedly drop off and become mere memories of what once was. It's time to take a look at the players who we can expect to emerge as very good, or even great players, and also the players who will fail to mimic their past successes. And with these changes come new expectations for them and their respected teams.

Expect Major Stuff From:



Marcus Thornton, Sacramento Kings
Thornton has done it before, coming out of nowhere to score baskets in bunches. His abilities to shoot from anywhere, drive and finish, and pass with a decent degree of effectiveness. Basically, this guy can score, and the only thing holding him back in years past was lack of minutes/lack of confidence. With a new contract, and a starting gig in Capitol City, Thornton will get his fair share of minutes in the intriguing Kings' back-court. Expect 19 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists per game.

DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
Like Thornton, Jordan's first couple years in the NBA came without a consistent role in the clumsy Clippers' rotation. He's always been seen as a project center, with a lot of potential to anchor a team's defense by swatting shots and boxing out 2-3 guys at a time. Last year, with Chris Kaman finding himself with constant nagging injuries, Jordan was finally given a legitimate shot to start in the middle, and as a result he blocked 142 shots. With Kaman's trade to the Hornets, Jordan is the man now, Dawg, and along with similar block totals, the arrival of Chris Paul should help his offensive game as well. Expect 11 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game.

CJ Miles, Utah Jazz
Miles was sort of a weird player last year. Often in Jerry Sloan's doghouse, his conditioning and work ethic were often questioned by those close to the Utah fold. Also playing behind Andrei Kirilenko and Raja Bell, while fighting for minutes with rookie fan-favorite Gordon Hayward, Miles was about as inconsistent as they come. With Kirilenko in Russia, Raja Bell suddenly an old man, and with Miles showing at training camp with a much more muscular frame with less body fat, maybe the shenanigans that Sloan saw in Miles are a thing of the past. His starting lineup spot may or may not be official, but his minutes in the rotation will definitely be higher this year. His offensive abilities will rival Devin Harris for most important in Utah's back-court. Expect 17 points, 2 three-pointers, 4 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block per game.

Paul George, Indiana Pacers
Paul George grew 2 inches since last season, and the 22 year old guard/forward for the Indiana Pacers will be stepping into a meaningful role for a team that many (including us) think will contend for a middle seed in the Eastern Conference. Paulie G. is going to focus his attention on defense, where his length and quickness allows him to guard anyone on the court outside of centers and some power forwards. What's intriguing about Paulie G. is his new-found confidence, which is creating a buzz in Indianapolis. In the preseason he was seen making 3s, slashing with and without the ball, finishing at the rim, and knocking down pull-up jumpers from all around. His offense was sharp, and it complimented the other guys in the starting lineup. With Mike "Floppy Hair" Dunleavey going to the Bucks, and Brandon Rush going to the Warriors, an opening for meaningful minutes are on the horizon for Paulie G., and I expect him to succeed with them. Expect 14 points, 7 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1 block per game.

Other guys to bust out in big ways: Greg Monroe (Detroit), Jodie Meeks (Philly), Norris Cole (Miami), and Tyler Hansborough (Indiana)

Expect Significant Decline From:



Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers
Pau had one of the worst playoff series of all time last spring against the Champion Dallas Mavericks. He averaged 13.1 points in the series, shooting under 43%. Gasol, a career .522 shooter, looked miserable out there, a shadow of the guy who won rings alongside Kobe and Phil. He was outmatched by Dirk Nowitzki in every aspect of play, and Dirk, a guy nobody ever thought of as a great defender, was able to get stops on the regular when Pau tried to bring it. So certainly Gasol will be heading into the new season with a giant chip on his shoulder, ready to prove that his Lakers are still the team to beat out West. But then came a failed trade to the Rockets due to Basketball Reasons, and suddenly his homeboy Lamar is in Dallas. Heading into the new season, the Lakers have never needed Pau Gasol to play great basketball as they do right now. Kobe is another year closer to his swan song, and although an equally large amount of pressure is on Andrew Bynum, his inevitable injury problems will leave the ball in Gasol's hands down low. I for one, think he's bound for more of what we saw against Dallas. Expect 17 points, 9 rebounds, and a much lower field goal percentage than what we're used to seeing from Pau.

Chauncey Billups, Los Angeles Clippers
Billups has bought into what Coach Vinny Del Negro is selling, finding himself as the starting shooting guard for the biggest splashers this NBA off-season. They traded away a big chunk of last year's rotation for point guards Chris Paul and Billups, and the dynamic of the roster now headlines with Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan. Not to mention Caron Butler, who will now start at small forward. Butler is a good player, but can sometimes bog down the offense with one-on-one isolation plays. Del Negro will have to figure out how to utilize the new players while featuring Blake Griffin and CP3 as the go-to-guys. With Billups, who admits that one of his past strengths was being bigger and stronger than opposing point guards, now finds himself smaller than his shooting guard match-ups. Already having lost a speed-step in the last year or two, Billups will likely see the ball less in his hands and more in Paul's. As a result, Billips is likely to become a 3-point shooter and little else. Expect 15 points, 4 assists, and not much else per game.

Channing Frye, Phoenix Suns
Frye has been quite the player for Phoenix for the last two seasons. He's capable of leading the league in 3-pointers, with his size and high release, he knocks down nearly 200 long-balls annually. This year, however, there's more competition on the Suns for playing time at the center and power forward positions. Marcin Gortat has shown that he's deserving of starter minutes, getting it done on both ends of the floor. Hakim Warrick isn't necessarily a great player, but he's certainly capable, and will take some minutes from Frye. Throw into the mix a more mature Robin Lopez and a promising young rookie in Markieff Morris, and add it up with Frye's usual early season struggles (this preseason he scored a total of 8 points on 1 of 14 shooting (with 6 free throws). The Suns are certainly fading from our minds, and Steve Nash is another guy that we could make the case for inclusion in this declining list of players, but Nash is too old and too amazing to write negatively about. Expect 13 points, 6 rebounds, and little else per game.

Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic
This one is maybe a little too bold, a little too stretchy, a tad bit on the wild side, but I've got this weird hunch that Doc Howard is going to let this season affect his game. I'll be the first to admit that once he finds his way to New Jersey, or Dallas, or Lakers Land, his attitude and insanity will go from negative to positive (gotta love that positive insanity), but until that day rises with old Papa Sunshine from the East, Doc Howard will be mired in a slump (according to his normal standards). Decline seems realistic, even if it's temporary. He'll probably play a similar breed of defense that we're used to, and his stats will project as such, but his outstanding field goal percentage, I think, will be lower than usual. Maybe I'm nuts, but I'm just not crazy about Orlando or Doc Howard this year. The supporting cast looks weak, and defenses will be able to focus on double and triple teaming the big fella. I expect his numbers to resemble those of his first three seasons in the NBA rather than his last three (.550ish instead of .620ish) up until he gets traded. His preseason showed us that his mind is somewhere else, as the Orlando Magic that was competing for an Eastern Conference title are now firmly off in the sunset. Expect 20 points, 13 rebounds, 2 blocks, and bad free throw shooting to go with a significant drop in field goal percentage.

Now get ready for a fun-filled Christmas Day! As we ignore our relatives and sit firmly glued to our television screens, just as Saint Nick and some of the taller elves always intended.

TD3Q's "Just a Peek": Eastern Conference Edition

Out East, a cold zone, a land of regret, where teams slither around, slapping each others hands away from their cookie pots. Where the team owners sit around in dilapidated old offices, like mobsters in glossy restaurants, giving their title of leadership a bad reputation. It's in the Eastern Conference, in this, the shorter, but sweeter 2011-2012 NBA season, where we challenge ourselves to reveal insightful data and proficient concepts.

There are three different groups that teams fall into heading into the season. There are the horrible teams (in the East, there are horrible teams everywhere), the good teams, and the teams that have a shot at actually singing along to Freddy Mercury next June, Larry O'Brien Trophy in hand.


Group One: Teams that Stink
Cleveland, Charlotte, and Toronto are going to stink. Cleveland won't stink quite as bad as last year's last place team, mired in a marathon season, their first without LeBron James. Hey, it got them the number one pick. They drafted a point guard named Kyrie Irvin. Someday he'll probably be pretty good. Their owner is an emotional roller coaster. Now they'll go out there and lose most of their games, as will the Raptors and the Bobcats. And that's all there is to it.


Group Two: Teams that Are Good
Next we examine our second group, the good teams, those middle-of-the-pack squads that bring the fight with some interesting ideas and game plans, who shift around like loose matter, winning more games than they lose. Highlighting this fun bunch, the Philadelphia 76ers.
Philly's identity has entered Jrue Holiday, where the young point guard finds comfort in leading. With a veteran team, a potentially big year from Elton Brand, and a core that's used to each other, the Sixers are poised for a jump in the standings. They'll find themselves just on the outside, looking in at the real-deal contenders.

Atlanta seems determined to ignore the fact that they need a real starting center, as they'll continue to use Al Horford and Josh Smith out of position. Losing Jamal Crawford and giving Jeff Teague the keys in his second year will result in a slight regression, and the Hawks are going to be looking somber at times. Pouting is contagious, and Atlanta might lead the league in it this year. Don't get too attached to the Hawks. That's my advice.

Orlando is destined for implosion. I hesitate to say too much, but that place is done for. I'm sorry, I've said too much.



With Deron Williams coming off having his number retired in Turkey, he and the Nets seem to have a World Class point guard running the show. With the most important Russian person as the team owner, there truly is a whiff of mobster stuff in the New Jersey Nets inner circle. They should be able to attract one or two New York lovers to join the fold. Doc Howard seems to think it would be fun to join the Nets. There's plenty to like about a team that's been really lousy for a bunch of years, but the fancy future that comes with winning a championship definitely won't be unfolding in Stink Town this season. Maybe in a few years in Brooklyn.

Indiana was a nice story last season, sneaking in the playoffs and putting up a tiny fight against the Chicago Bulls. This season they've got an improved roster, ongoing development of some mighty important youngsters (Hibby, Paul George (George is poised to really play like a winner in a much bigger role), and Darren Collison. Pacers looking cool!

Andrew Bogut was in a constant bad dream last season, what with his elbow sending enormous amounts of pain into his whole body. Well, he's smiling again, something he never did, not even once, last season. He's claiming that the pain has subsided, and the hallucinations have stopped completely. Can Brandon Jennings take the next step? I honestly don't know. Stephen Jackson is getting old. Beno Udrih is getting cold. Drew Gooden is getting bold. And that's the Bucks news I've been told.

Washington and Detroit are lucky to be associated with this group, the second group, the one that has all the mediocre to pretty good teams. Truth is, Detroit and Washington are still pretty lousy. Detroit seems to be the worst managed team in the East. Somehow Joe Dumars was given a lifetime free pass and he's gone insane and now all he wants to do is try to screw things up. After signing two of the biggest busts to lucrative long-term deals last off-season (Charlie V. and Benny G.), they went ahead and gave Tayshaun Prince a big new contract. On the plus side, we get to watch Greg Monroe do some things. But although Monroe is cool, Detroit as a whole will be fortunate to contend for the playoffs. Washington even more so.

Group 3: Contending
I'm giving the New York Knicks some sort of weird benefit of the doubt on this one. They signed a champion center in Tyson Chandler, and they'll have all season to figure it out with some insane offensive firepower of one-two punch Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire. They're one of those teams that gets what they want, and it wouldn't be surprising to see them land some more talent as time shoves forward relentlessly. Baron Davis is already on board, and who knows, maybe even some good players will join also.

Boston looks to get back on the saddle after their banged and bruised bodies lost in last season's semis to the Miami Heat. The series wasn't very close, so Boston's got a lot to prove if they want to stay in the title picture. Miami seems too strong for an old leathery team like Boston. And the sad news regarding their young forward, Jeff Green, and his heart issue keeping him off the court this season, will definitely affect their bench rotations. Boston is probably more in the Philadelphia boat this year, a fitting scene, considering their close bond from the way-back-when (Colonial Times).



So you take out all the teams that I've already mentioned and you get the two heavy weights. You get Chicago, and you get Miami. You know the story, I don't need to candy coat any of it for you. Chicago got Rip Hamilton. Miami got Shane Battier. Chicago has the MVP, D-Rose, and Miami has the Super-Star Super-Core with LeBron, Wade, and Shane Battier. Hopefully we'll get to watch the two teams in this season's Eastern Conference Finals (either that or Pacers/Bucks is a close second).

But that's a long way down the road. In the meantime, let's just sit back, relax, rest easy on the sorrow, child, and let the Triple Dribble be your guide. Look for it, midway through the 3rd Quarter. Don't blink or you'll miss it.

And We're Back

A message from the editors:

"As the NBA Lockout has been lifted, we at Triple Dribble in the 3rd Quarter would like to formally invite all readers and nonreaders to attend a special gala to celebrate the return of your favorite sports blog. This Sunday at the Marietta Banquet Hall in Marietta, Minnesota, wine and snacks will be served as we bring in the new season in style. Thanks for your dedicated love of our blog, and please continue fighting the pirates on the high seas. Thank you.

-Jim Ponds and Coyote, editors and chieftains, TD3Q

Where the %$*@#$ is my NBA?

Baseball season is over. The Cardinals have stopped celebrating.
Football comes but twice a week, and Indianapolis is often on TV.
Hockey? It's too late for us to start following hockey, don't you think?
College sports? College sports are funny games compared to their professional counterparts.

We need the NBA. As the players and owners continue to find themselves on opposite sides of a door named Lockout, we lock ourselves inside our crust-sheds, drinking the tonic of our time, trying our best to hide from the creepiness and the helplessness of the real world. How do we cope with a failing humankind? We watch sports, and not just any sports, no. We watch the NBA, the MLB, and the NFL. We watch March Madness when it happens, but find it difficult to focus on the pre-March college level. We enjoy Grand Slam tennis, but it's easy to find a Slam slipping by without much attention spent toward it. But we like it. We do.

Missing NBA games though... how are we going to avoid the tragedy around us without them? Usually around this time of year, we can fluidly transition from the centuries-old World Series of baseball into the final days of Preseason NBA exhibitions without noticing murder, corruption, greed, sad drug addiction, bounty-hunter lawlessness, foolish bribery, and the like. Then suddenly, without a warning to the wind, it's November, and NBA games count again, and there we sit with technology our copilot, watching games and kicking all else to the curb. Sure, we still have to work in the factories, libraries, or tuna canneries like everybody else, but we can watch basketball at night! And we can leave the street-life to the vigilantes and the crime-lords they seek to destroy.

Not in 2011, however. No. Not this go-around. The word on the street is that the Collective Bargaining Agreement is anything but. In fact, one doesn't exist right now, as players and owners and other people who also love grabbing money keep fighting the bad fight. No money now, no games now, just a bunch of old-timey tom-foolery. It's not safe in some parts of the world. And without the NBA, it's never been so soul-shatteringly apparent like it is now.

Lockout (Real Talk)

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Nothing Wrong With It: Mavs Use Thievery to Win First Championship

The Dallas Mavericks are as guilty as anyone when it comes to Highway Robbery in the trading realm of professional hoops. Spurs coach Gregg Popovic, who screamed bloody murder when the Lakers and Grizzlies had the Gasol boys switch bedrooms back in 2008, didn't seem to mention anything with his patented brand of rage when the Mavs flexed their wealth muscles and brought in a handful of Wizards, a Raptor, and a Bobcat over the last two years. In hindsight? Never has a team given up so little to receive so much to go on and win an NBA title so quickly, a feat that Mark Cuban and Dirk Nowitzki have been trying to accomplish since Calvin Booth's Infamous Bucket (also known as Michael Finley's Greatest Assist) back in the 2001 NBA Playoffs, when the Little Mavericks beat the Utah Jazz for their first Playoff series victory in their first Playoff appearance in eleven years.

Yes, after eleven years, the Mavs were back, but it would take another long decade for them to win it all. What changed over the last decade for Dallas, full of 50-win seasons and post season heartbreak, to put them over the top for their dominating title run? After a boatload of tinkering, after two weird coaches had to get fired, and another brilliant coach had to be brought in, the real progress began almost exactly 2 years ago, on July 9, 2009, when the Dallas Mavericks found themselves as the main beneficiary of a 4-Team trade.


In that trade with the Raptors, Grizzlies, and Orlando Magic, the Mavs gave up exactly Jerry Stackhouse (his expiring contract being the real apple of Toronto's eye), Devean George, and Antoine Wright (who the Raptors envisioned as their starting shooting guard... yikes). In return the Mavericks received Shawn Marion and Kris Humphries. Kris was already a slightly valuable young player, with real potential and a rock solid attitude. He was arguably the second best player involved in the trade. The Mavs later sent him to New Jersey in a way less dramatic money saving move.

Marion was the real prize of the day though, and although his joining the Mavericks was done through sign-and-trade, meaning he had chosen to sign with them on his own, the deal shines brightly in many ways regarding Dallas, their brains, and their bucks. Toronto let Marion walk in order to give more money to Hedo Turkoglu, a contract that has turned out to be one of the worst in the league (and one of the most traded). Marion meanwhile, came to Dallas in exchange for simple nothings (Devean George being one of the worst Mavericks of all time), and after just two quick years, his role as the Mavericks' best perimeter defender and third scoring option are as responsible for their championship as anything, and his price tag has shown to be extremely reasonable.


With Marion on board, things were looking improved. But the Maverick roster still had the same glaring problems; at small forward and at center the Mavericks were playing a gimpy Josh Howard and an always pathetic Erick Dampier. If the Mavs wanted a ring, the squad still needed improvement. So Donnie Nelson and crew went back to work, and oops, they did it again. This time with the blow-it-up Washington Wizards, the Mavericks pillaged the Wiz for nearly half their rotation, receiving Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, and DeShawn Stevenson. In their dusty tracks, the ultra-wealthy Dallas team had left the scraps of Josh Howard, his upcoming torn ACL, and Drew "Baby Don't Tug On My Rat Tail" Gooden. Oh... and the Mavs somehow also received cash considerations and somehow didn't have to touch the ticking time-bomb of Gilbert Arenas's contract... Wow.

The strangest thing about this deal is that none of the three Wizard players' contracts were epically long or painful. Haywood's was actually expiring after that season, and Caron's and Stevenson's after the following. The Wizards simply gave up, and the Mavericks were happy to be there to take full advantage. Butler might have been hurt for the title run, but his solid play leading up to his injury was crucial for Dallas' success up to mid-season. Stevenson ended up as the most dominant 3-point shooter in the Finals, and, when he wants to be, Haywood's probably the best backup center in the league.

The final lopsided trade piece of the championship puzzle, the trade with Charlotte for Tyson Chandler, turned out to be the luckiest of the three swaps. With the first two trades, Mavs fans showed high excitement for what they meant to the team's chances. The trades had people feeling extremely good for the sake of Maverick contention. But when the NBA hit the free agent bonanza in the summer of 2010, after a post season in which Dallas saw themselves lose in the first round for the third time in four years, Mavs fans wanted the team to step it up, and many figured the only way to do so was to sign LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Dwyane Wade, or somehow convince Conference rivals Denver or New Orleans to trade us their best players in Carmelo Anthony or Chris Paul. The trade bait? One expiring contract of Erick Dampier, a unique trade chip that allowed another team to erase substantial payroll. It was a tool the super-rich Mavs had designed themselves, purely to take advantage of those with financial woes, or to compensate those with escaping free agent superstars. Mavs fans wanted to pull a Pau Gasol trade of their own, only instead of the promising young Marc Gasol, a player who has quickly evolved into an all-star caliber center whom that Lake Show had surrendered to obtain Pau, the Mavs fans wanted to give up Erick Dampier, a player everyone hated because he stinks. And although the fans' attitude might have matched Dampier's abilities, the Mavericks ended up pulling a trade that did just what they had hoped, only nobody at the time thought it as such.

Many considered the Chandler trade a waste, seeing Tyson as an injury prone shadow of his former self. Some considered Dampier for Tyson a wash, more of the same. Oh how little did they understand, how Tyson Chandler, a player who was unsuccessfully traded twice before the Mavericks finally somehow cracked the code (first he flunked his physical on a trade to OKC, then the Bobcats backed out at the midnight hour in a potential Chandler trade with Toronto), would become the second most important player on the 2011 Championship Dallas Maverick roster. And the most ruthless thing is, the trade's lopsided results don't stop there! Also unloaded by Dallas in the trade was Matt Carroll, who the Bobcats will have sitting on their bench for the next two seasons for $7,400,000. For Maverick fans, it's been pure magic as we watched this freshly acquired talent destroy all in their way to win the Larry O'Brien Trophy. You have to love the NBA, where the rich get richer, and the poor beg for a drastic cut in payroll and a hard salary cap to level the playing field. Good luck with that one, silly poor teams. And good luck to Gregg Popovic, the angriest man in sports.

Thursday NBA Throw-Up: Finals Edition

After the better part of a century of living, Shaquille O'Neal has committed to retirement as a player in the NBA, a notion that, even if intended as a bluff, is at its core most definite and intense. Although he's been a non-factor for a few years now, O'Neal has always kept us remembering the ugly fights, such as the big swing-and-a-miss with Brad Miller. He's tried really really hard to keep the faces smiling, or occasionally afraid of him, or really anything just as long as the faces are there, watching his movements, dreaming of a distant future, one where they love the Shaq man. Well, guess what, that future is now, and Shaq's a goner, but with him goes the true definition of greatness, a definition that very few can match. And even though for some reason, it feels great to know Shaq is gone forever, a tiny part of us will miss him, but probably not all that often. For undoubtedly, Shaq's persistent effort to get the faces to watch him will continue on a TV channel near you.


With all the reports coming out of Euroleague about Ricky Rubio, it seriously seems like the Timberpups are up to their old tricks, with an emphasis on the old and the tricks. Rubio, with open court vision that pays off, finds himself unable to play defense, shoot the ball, or develop muscle. Seems like another obvious bust for the perpetual Timberpups, who get their name from the old lumberjack days of yesteryear. "Timber!!!!!" somebody yelled while failing to hold in a roadhouse chuckle. That somebody was you, and that place was the Target Center, an empty nest full of falling trees of symbol.


Out in Portland, the corporate fat cats are trying to get Brandon Roy to hang it up, call it a career, giving the Blazers a huge break financially for years to come. Those Blazer fat cats desire a corporate bail-out, NBA style, and it's offbeat pandemonium, the kind you'd expect out of Oregon. We asked accounting specialist Grant Frost about his take on the matter, thinking that only a financial wizard of Grant's caliber could unspin the back and forth web of lies coming from behind the scenes in Portland, Oregon. "It's truly shocking. It reminds me of the plot of Cast Away a little bit. I mean what's Helen Hunt supposed to do? Brandon Roy's knees are gone and they're never coming back. But... what if they do?" reports Frost.

Gilbert Arenas is on Twitter talking about needing slaves/girlfriends to make him breakfast in the morning. Pretty weird thing to talk about on Twitter. I knew Gil was old school, but geez, slave girls? Good luck explaining this one Mr. Arenas.

Definitely the big talk in the NBA right now is all about one guy, Kenyon Martin. Where will he wind up next season. As one of the premier crazy guys in the NBA, Martin tries harder than most to play intensely good defense on two bad knees. Set to turn 34 next season, Martin is becoming the kind of veteran guy that we can all be fond of. I'd love to watch him play a meaningful role off a bench for a contending team. He'll definitely want to play for a championship at this stage of his life. Fingers crossed he signs with Portland. More realistically, he signs with Miami.

How could anyone root for these guys?