Expect Major Stuff From:
Marcus Thornton, Sacramento Kings
Thornton has done it before, coming out of nowhere to score baskets in bunches. His abilities to shoot from anywhere, drive and finish, and pass with a decent degree of effectiveness. Basically, this guy can score, and the only thing holding him back in years past was lack of minutes/lack of confidence. With a new contract, and a starting gig in Capitol City, Thornton will get his fair share of minutes in the intriguing Kings' back-court. Expect 19 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists per game.
DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
Like Thornton, Jordan's first couple years in the NBA came without a consistent role in the clumsy Clippers' rotation. He's always been seen as a project center, with a lot of potential to anchor a team's defense by swatting shots and boxing out 2-3 guys at a time. Last year, with Chris Kaman finding himself with constant nagging injuries, Jordan was finally given a legitimate shot to start in the middle, and as a result he blocked 142 shots. With Kaman's trade to the Hornets, Jordan is the man now, Dawg, and along with similar block totals, the arrival of Chris Paul should help his offensive game as well. Expect 11 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game.
CJ Miles, Utah Jazz
Miles was sort of a weird player last year. Often in Jerry Sloan's doghouse, his conditioning and work ethic were often questioned by those close to the Utah fold. Also playing behind Andrei Kirilenko and Raja Bell, while fighting for minutes with rookie fan-favorite Gordon Hayward, Miles was about as inconsistent as they come. With Kirilenko in Russia, Raja Bell suddenly an old man, and with Miles showing at training camp with a much more muscular frame with less body fat, maybe the shenanigans that Sloan saw in Miles are a thing of the past. His starting lineup spot may or may not be official, but his minutes in the rotation will definitely be higher this year. His offensive abilities will rival Devin Harris for most important in Utah's back-court. Expect 17 points, 2 three-pointers, 4 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block per game.
Paul George, Indiana Pacers
Paul George grew 2 inches since last season, and the 22 year old guard/forward for the Indiana Pacers will be stepping into a meaningful role for a team that many (including us) think will contend for a middle seed in the Eastern Conference. Paulie G. is going to focus his attention on defense, where his length and quickness allows him to guard anyone on the court outside of centers and some power forwards. What's intriguing about Paulie G. is his new-found confidence, which is creating a buzz in Indianapolis. In the preseason he was seen making 3s, slashing with and without the ball, finishing at the rim, and knocking down pull-up jumpers from all around. His offense was sharp, and it complimented the other guys in the starting lineup. With Mike "Floppy Hair" Dunleavey going to the Bucks, and Brandon Rush going to the Warriors, an opening for meaningful minutes are on the horizon for Paulie G., and I expect him to succeed with them. Expect 14 points, 7 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1 block per game.
Other guys to bust out in big ways: Greg Monroe (Detroit), Jodie Meeks (Philly), Norris Cole (Miami), and Tyler Hansborough (Indiana)
Expect Significant Decline From:
Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers
Pau had one of the worst playoff series of all time last spring against the Champion Dallas Mavericks. He averaged 13.1 points in the series, shooting under 43%. Gasol, a career .522 shooter, looked miserable out there, a shadow of the guy who won rings alongside Kobe and Phil. He was outmatched by Dirk Nowitzki in every aspect of play, and Dirk, a guy nobody ever thought of as a great defender, was able to get stops on the regular when Pau tried to bring it. So certainly Gasol will be heading into the new season with a giant chip on his shoulder, ready to prove that his Lakers are still the team to beat out West. But then came a failed trade to the Rockets due to Basketball Reasons, and suddenly his homeboy Lamar is in Dallas. Heading into the new season, the Lakers have never needed Pau Gasol to play great basketball as they do right now. Kobe is another year closer to his swan song, and although an equally large amount of pressure is on Andrew Bynum, his inevitable injury problems will leave the ball in Gasol's hands down low. I for one, think he's bound for more of what we saw against Dallas. Expect 17 points, 9 rebounds, and a much lower field goal percentage than what we're used to seeing from Pau.
Chauncey Billups, Los Angeles Clippers
Billups has bought into what Coach Vinny Del Negro is selling, finding himself as the starting shooting guard for the biggest splashers this NBA off-season. They traded away a big chunk of last year's rotation for point guards Chris Paul and Billups, and the dynamic of the roster now headlines with Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan. Not to mention Caron Butler, who will now start at small forward. Butler is a good player, but can sometimes bog down the offense with one-on-one isolation plays. Del Negro will have to figure out how to utilize the new players while featuring Blake Griffin and CP3 as the go-to-guys. With Billups, who admits that one of his past strengths was being bigger and stronger than opposing point guards, now finds himself smaller than his shooting guard match-ups. Already having lost a speed-step in the last year or two, Billups will likely see the ball less in his hands and more in Paul's. As a result, Billips is likely to become a 3-point shooter and little else. Expect 15 points, 4 assists, and not much else per game.
Channing Frye, Phoenix Suns
Frye has been quite the player for Phoenix for the last two seasons. He's capable of leading the league in 3-pointers, with his size and high release, he knocks down nearly 200 long-balls annually. This year, however, there's more competition on the Suns for playing time at the center and power forward positions. Marcin Gortat has shown that he's deserving of starter minutes, getting it done on both ends of the floor. Hakim Warrick isn't necessarily a great player, but he's certainly capable, and will take some minutes from Frye. Throw into the mix a more mature Robin Lopez and a promising young rookie in Markieff Morris, and add it up with Frye's usual early season struggles (this preseason he scored a total of 8 points on 1 of 14 shooting (with 6 free throws). The Suns are certainly fading from our minds, and Steve Nash is another guy that we could make the case for inclusion in this declining list of players, but Nash is too old and too amazing to write negatively about. Expect 13 points, 6 rebounds, and little else per game.
Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic
This one is maybe a little too bold, a little too stretchy, a tad bit on the wild side, but I've got this weird hunch that Doc Howard is going to let this season affect his game. I'll be the first to admit that once he finds his way to New Jersey, or Dallas, or Lakers Land, his attitude and insanity will go from negative to positive (gotta love that positive insanity), but until that day rises with old Papa Sunshine from the East, Doc Howard will be mired in a slump (according to his normal standards). Decline seems realistic, even if it's temporary. He'll probably play a similar breed of defense that we're used to, and his stats will project as such, but his outstanding field goal percentage, I think, will be lower than usual. Maybe I'm nuts, but I'm just not crazy about Orlando or Doc Howard this year. The supporting cast looks weak, and defenses will be able to focus on double and triple teaming the big fella. I expect his numbers to resemble those of his first three seasons in the NBA rather than his last three (.550ish instead of .620ish) up until he gets traded. His preseason showed us that his mind is somewhere else, as the Orlando Magic that was competing for an Eastern Conference title are now firmly off in the sunset. Expect 20 points, 13 rebounds, 2 blocks, and bad free throw shooting to go with a significant drop in field goal percentage.
Now get ready for a fun-filled Christmas Day! As we ignore our relatives and sit firmly glued to our television screens, just as Saint Nick and some of the taller elves always intended.
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