Saturday, April 16, 2011

Spurs and Grizzlies: How-boutchya! A Playoff Preview!


#1 San Antonio Spurs
vs.
#8 Memphis Grizzlies

Every five to ten years, you'll find an 8th seed in the NBA that belongs in a feel-good sports film. The Denver Nuggets of 1994 shocked the Seattle team that no longer exists. Dikembe Mutumbo clutched a basketball and the credits rolled. The cool-era Knicks won an epic series against hated Miami in 1999, forever snatching our hearts. The 2007 Golden State Warriors made sports fans everywhere drop to their knees and shout out loud, "We believe!" Sure, there have been other 8 seeds who have come close, but in the end they lost, and their spots in history are miniature and irrelevant with the hoards of other 8th seed 1st round losers (8th seeds lose the 1st round series 96% of the time, with only the 3 winners named above, and 54 others who have lost).

This year, we have potential for the fourth-ever 8th seed to win a series. Memphis (sorry Pacer fans) is not your typical 8th seed. Like 2007's Golden State team, Memphis's bulk of winning has come in the second half of the season, and it's come consistently. The Spurs, on the other hand, haven't been tasting the victory bread as often lately. They had a losing stretch of 6 straight a few weeks ago, and their giant lightning winning times came more so in the first half of the season. We all know old guys break down (speaking of old guys), and the Spurs are about as old as a grandfather clock.

Zach Randolph and Manu Ginobili are both prolific scorers. Tim Duncan is certainly still a defensive force, but in Memphis, the Griz have a 6-shooter of defensive minded wing players they can throw at Manu (who happens to enter the series with a sudden elbow injury). Tony Parker can out-score Mike Conley, but Conley can usually out-defend Tony Parker. Some slashing, some planting for 3, the Memphis glue guys are always ready to finish when counted upon. This year the Spurs will be relying more on their young role players, and these guys have yet to prove themselves on the big stage. With a hobbled Argentinian here and one grey whisker too many there, the Spurs aren't the rocky coastline of the Byzantine Empire like they once were, and with even slight uncertainty comes vulnerability.

San Antonio has the moxie to best the Grizzlies, but we all expect Memphis to make it one helluva series, and one that most will hope to go the distance. Coach Poppy Seed knows how to lead the Spurs to success, but the athleticism and depth of Memphis is hard to overlook. Last year in the West it took 50 wins minimum to find yourself in the playoffs. Memphis was good last season, but they fell short in the ultra-competitive West. Hungry like a real grizzly bear in the late summer months, Memphis clicks with poise. I'm not saying it's going to be easy, and surely the Spurs have to be brainy favorites in many aspects of the game, but if Memphis finds a way to taste some victory early, and move along to force a game 7, I think they'll be the next great 8 spot. The Griz got the chops, and brother, they know it. They expect to join the super exclusive 8th Seed Winner Club, joining the '94 Nuggets, the '99 NYK, and the '07 Bay Area Warriors, and I'm thinking they might be right-on.

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