Spurs and Grizzlies: How-boutchya! A Playoff Preview!

#1 San Antonio Spurs
vs.
#8 Memphis Grizzlies

Every five to ten years, you'll find an 8th seed in the NBA that belongs in a feel-good sports film. The Denver Nuggets of 1994 shocked the Seattle team that no longer exists. Dikembe Mutumbo clutched a basketball and the credits rolled. The cool-era Knicks won an epic series against hated Miami in 1999, forever snatching our hearts. The 2007 Golden State Warriors made sports fans everywhere drop to their knees and shout out loud, "We believe!" Sure, there have been other 8 seeds who have come close, but in the end they lost, and their spots in history are miniature and irrelevant with the hoards of other 8th seed 1st round losers (8th seeds lose the 1st round series 96% of the time, with only the 3 winners named above, and 54 others who have lost).

This year, we have potential for the fourth-ever 8th seed to win a series. Memphis (sorry Pacer fans) is not your typical 8th seed. Like 2007's Golden State team, Memphis's bulk of winning has come in the second half of the season, and it's come consistently. The Spurs, on the other hand, haven't been tasting the victory bread as often lately. They had a losing stretch of 6 straight a few weeks ago, and their giant lightning winning times came more so in the first half of the season. We all know old guys break down (speaking of old guys), and the Spurs are about as old as a grandfather clock.

Zach Randolph and Manu Ginobili are both prolific scorers. Tim Duncan is certainly still a defensive force, but in Memphis, the Griz have a 6-shooter of defensive minded wing players they can throw at Manu (who happens to enter the series with a sudden elbow injury). Tony Parker can out-score Mike Conley, but Conley can usually out-defend Tony Parker. Some slashing, some planting for 3, the Memphis glue guys are always ready to finish when counted upon. This year the Spurs will be relying more on their young role players, and these guys have yet to prove themselves on the big stage. With a hobbled Argentinian here and one grey whisker too many there, the Spurs aren't the rocky coastline of the Byzantine Empire like they once were, and with even slight uncertainty comes vulnerability.

San Antonio has the moxie to best the Grizzlies, but we all expect Memphis to make it one helluva series, and one that most will hope to go the distance. Coach Poppy Seed knows how to lead the Spurs to success, but the athleticism and depth of Memphis is hard to overlook. Last year in the West it took 50 wins minimum to find yourself in the playoffs. Memphis was good last season, but they fell short in the ultra-competitive West. Hungry like a real grizzly bear in the late summer months, Memphis clicks with poise. I'm not saying it's going to be easy, and surely the Spurs have to be brainy favorites in many aspects of the game, but if Memphis finds a way to taste some victory early, and move along to force a game 7, I think they'll be the next great 8 spot. The Griz got the chops, and brother, they know it. They expect to join the super exclusive 8th Seed Winner Club, joining the '94 Nuggets, the '99 NYK, and the '07 Bay Area Warriors, and I'm thinking they might be right-on.

Who Left the West Wide Open?

The playoff picture out west has a sinister underdog's breeze blowing these days, with things looking a bit up-in-the-air with the middle seeds (and the higher seeds for that matter). It's a TD3Q glimpse out West, where "shaping-up" is something of an understatement.

The Trailblazers got a giant something-for-nothing from Michael "Air" Jordan and the Bobcats this trade deadline, finding magic in the vines with the acquisition of Gerald Wallace in exchange for player scraps and nose-bleed draft picks. Gerry Wallace is the ultimate all star glue-guy, bringing toughness to every pinpoint and angled bounce of the game. As LaMarcus Aldridge continues his first-team style domination on a nightly basis, and as Portland throws out one of the thickest rotations in the NBA, a first round showdown with OKC, Dallas, or the Lakers would definitely give ticket holders their money's worth. If lightning strikes twice, and at exactly the right moments, Portland's shot to blaze an upset trail all the way to the Western Conference Finals suddenly finds itself on the radar. They may hide camouflaged, slightly near the neutral zone, behind a wooded area with some shovels, but Portland is on the radar nonetheless.

This season's Old Memphis Grizzlies are the 2007 Golden State Warriors of 2011. San Antonio, Dallas, and the LA Lakers are all dancing around in their top seeded penthouses, crossing their fingers that Memphis, who sat on the outside looking in for the majority of the year, finishes as somebody else's first round counter-seed. Consider this promise that Rudy Gay will soon slide back to his early season form, refreshed and poised from his time on injury leave, back with mental vengeance tattoos as one of the team's top two options. Unlike last year's Grizzlies, the bench rotation has shaped up nicely, and with the reacquisition of Shane "Two Brain" Battier rounding out the ultimate collection of defensive minded glue guys, Memphis has a solid plethora of defensive toughness to compliment the offensive weapons. At 6 and 5, the Grizzlies hold a winning record against the Spurs, Lakers, and Mavs, and they certainly have our attention as a possible upset candidate heading into the playoffs.

The Nuggets are currently our 5th place darlings, and after trading Carmelo Anthony and his chinchilla fur coat collection for depth, offensive production, and potential, they find themselves with a talented, unselfish, and deep roster. While they don't yet have the chops to win a series against LA or Dallas, if they can hold onto that 5th seed, they should find a chance against the Thunder (who with all their stardom and solidness have never won a single playoff series). Although the Nuggets probably don't have the experience nor the resources to maintain their current pace for 5th place, they've grabbed our attention and have the ability to challenge in the first round, unlike whoever finishes in 8th (probably either Phoenix or New Orleans). Can Denver get four wins against LA or the Mavs? I suppose we shouldn't rule it out, since we're talking about Dallas here, but it seems highly unlikely, especially against the Lakers. Nugget supporters are lucky though, believe it or not. A major transition has begun and with it comes smooth sailing right off the bat. The Nuggets bring a togetherness to their games, and coach George Karl leads it by example (some say by hosting team dinners at top rated restaurants).

The 2011 NBA Playoffs should bring extra excitement right from the start, with at least 50% upset potential in the first round match-up arena (guaranteed!), we officially recognize 3 of the lower 4 playoff teams as barn burning tunnel rats, flying under the radar with potential for lengthy playoff runs. Keep a close eye on team records as these ever-important games unfold. Memphis and Portland are underdogs with teeth, and they could easily find themselves in 5th and 6th, making the race for 2nd between LA and Dallas all the more bone chilling! It's Halloween in March, only in the NBA!

Hornets Talk "Because it's great"

With one month remaining on the old NBA calender, we at Tdub'n3Q are required to watch pro basketball from 6:00 PM until 9:45 PM (central standard). Most of us (myself included) tend to go overtime with game watching, sometimes even finding ourselves watching games passed the midnight hour. Lately we've been forced to watch Hornets games, due to a glitch in the interface system where we work and watch basketball. Lately, one of our peers, Doug Mandavale, has been sitting with us during Hornets broadcasts, which has been annoying, because Doug's constantly complaining about how the Hornets are "just another lottery team," and that he "can't (expletive) wait until the corporate fat cats stop getting bail outs and start fixing the glitch in our interface system so we can watch any game we want," and that he wishes he could watch the "Spurs put the smack down on Minnesota instead of another (expletive) Hornets game." Thankfully, Doug isn't sitting with us any longer. Jerry was pretty adamant to him, so Doug is now sitting near the back with the Dagger Boys (gotta admit, Dagger Boys write good stuff about the NBA). Anyway, seen every Hornets game for the last two and a half weeks, including tonight's late show match-up against the Reggie Williams and Chris Hunter Golden State team.

Let's take a quick moment to discuss head coach Jack Bower. This guy has really let himself go physically. He was once a fictional character played by Kiefer Sutherland, and now look at him. Guess what. He's doing it to get an edge on the competition. And it's working! Coach Bower has really tricked his players into giving their all, and the opposition can't figure out where he's preparing for at any given moment. "I just can't read him," said 76er guard Jrue Holiday. "He's a coaching mystery."

As I watch Hornets games unfold, I tend to keep my eyes closed when Mo Peterson has the basketball. Fred usually taps me on the arm after Mo passes/misses, and I resume watching.

When the Hornets back court has the looks of Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton, that is when Doug's annoying shit talk really doesn't make any sense. I've seen plenty of every team play basketball this season (except the Heat, because they are the worst) and I can say with great certainty that the young rookie duo of Collison and Thonton is the most intriguing and potentially epic guard combo in the league. Thornton's a real NBA guard, and as his career continues you'll see his brain start making more and more right decisions that lead to winning ballgames. The real story here though is Darren Collison, whose future shines just as bright as those rookie of the year candidate Blue Chip names you hear about on AM radio such as Tyreke Evens, Brandon Jennings, or Stephen Curry. While his assist totals remind you of a young Mark Jackson, his shooting touch and ball dribbling maneuvers ring just as true. I'm talking about a ROOKIE POINT GUARD that is shooting .498 and .816 during the last month. His numbers have resembled the likes of Chauncey Billups's during the same period, except Collison has almost three times as many assists. Brandon Jennings knows what's what. He recently stated that Collison was his choice for Rookie of the Year. I think I might agree with him. Finding a rookie point guard gem like Collison with the 21st pick in the draft is a wonderful feeling for such a mediocre team like New Orleans. I'm loving today's Hornets. They compete hard, and they follow their veteran all star David West to the final whistle, and even though they will not be competing in the post season, the future looks pretty nice in soggy New Orleans.

Oh that's right... Chris Paul plays in New Orleans. And he's coming back next week to reclaim his starting spot on the Hornet roster. And he justifiably demands as many minutes as he can handle, because he's the best point guard in the NBA, even though his team is so mediocre (I blame Emeka Okafor and the city's shitty fans who don't go to games which leads the team's ownership group to lose lots of money and thus trimming payroll which inevitably creates a pretty consistent state of mediocrity such as this year's edition with and without Chris Paul). So what am I getting at? You guessed it.

There is no excuse to not trade Chris Paul this summer. Throw him in there and let him play 35 minutes a game for the last month of the season. Show the world that he's healthy and incredible and still the best point guard in the NBA, because guess what? He's also the second highest paid point guard in the NBA (behind Sweet Gil Arenas). Trading Chris Paul might not be popular among your shitty fans, but come on Hornet team managment, your fans don't come to your games. You have to do what's right for you. If you insist on cutting payroll and your losses, this is the no brainer of all no brainers. Paul will command the kind of interest of a young Joe Mauer, and trading him to a playoff contender who can part with a sizable package of young talent including household names is almost a sure thing. Would Memphis offer O.J. Mayo, Marc Gasol, Hasheem Thabeet, and a few first round picks for the best point guard in the NBA? Maybe Atlanta could pair him with Joe Johnson and offer up Al Horford, the rights to Josh Childress and draft picks. Then maybe the Hawks go out and sign freshly waived Erick Dampier and Marcus Camby to create a very very cool Eastern Conference basketball team (but that's another story). Maybe Michael Jordan doesn't particularly care for Raymond Felton and decides to make some big changes, trading Gerald Wallace, cash, and draft picks for Chris Paul. Pretty much every team that doesn't have a top three point guard will want him.

This summer, New Orleans will be in the driver's seat with this whole possibility. Hopefully they'll take the car and drive it like a metaphor for pulling the trigger on a Chris Paul trade.