As the contending teams in the Eastern Conference compete their way to the regular season finish line, we look forward to seeing the top six squads prepare for the bigger and more profound battle that is the 2011 playoffs. We look ahead at where we think things will sit as the regular season winds to an end. With the additions of Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony, the New York Knicks are newcomers to the East's contention board, finding themselves in the big picture with Boston, Miami, Chicago, Orlando, and generously, the Atlanta Hawks. Dreaming up incredible playoff showdowns comes naturally to us at Triple Double in the 3rd Quarter, and after a bit of stretch-run projection, we consider a few first round match-ups that we're looking forward to, and the subsequent series's that we'll see as the playoffs unfold.
Whoever obtains the top two seeds in the East will feel comfortable with their first round opponents. Whether it be the 76ers, Pacers, Bobcats, or Bucks, it's hard to envision the 1-8 and 2-7 first round series's as much more than bye rounds for the top two teams. These bubble squads fighting for post season spots have nearly no chance at upsetting their top seeded opponents, and so the big guns in the East definitely have much to fight for as they try to avoid first round face-offs against the very solid 5th or 6th place teams.
All season long we've been watching Boston and Miami hold their spots on top of the hill that is the East. It seemed improbable that the other teams had much of a chance to catch them, but suddenly the Chicago Bulls are surging, and Orlando MVP candidate Dwight Howard's wake-up call to his teammates has been temporarily answered, making things noisy out East. However, with a 4 1/2 game deficit to current second place Miami, Orlando seems destined for one of the enticing first round series's against either New York or Atlanta.
Chicago keeps winning games, and even after a tough, March 2nd road loss to the Hawks, their knocking is as loud as ever, with both Miami and Boston hearing Chicago's noisy pound. Boston's remaining schedule features the fewest games against current playoff teams, so it appears likely that they'll remain in one of the top two seeds, especially considering how a game or two in the current standings holds such value and Boston with a 3 game lead over Chicago. Miami plays two more games against current playoff teams than do the Bulls, but their game and a half lead feels stronger than the mere number and fraction actually represent. Miami's experience has a definite advantage over Chicago's, and Mike Bibby should prove to be a quality addition. He may not have the speed or toughness he once showed in the early days of his career, but he's a big time shot maker, and his ability to spread the floor and find open shooters will definitely benefit Miami down the stretch. It's not impossible, but it would be surprising if Boston or Miami slipped into the 3rd spot in the East.
New York against Chicago in the first round seems perfect. New York's new big three of Billups, Stoudamire, and Anthony are all playoff warriors, each playing deep into the playoffs in recent years. With their lead over lower seeds safe, New York has the remainder of the year to find it's chemistry. If they're able to do so, watch out Chicago, because the Knicks aren't just happy to be there. They're playing to win. Chicago's roster has the weapons to outlast the thinner squad of New York, but it should be interesting as the series unfolds. It'll be the Knicks' stellar offense against the stifling defense of Chicago, and as we all know, you can't bet against stifling D. Give me Chicago in 6.
The real first round coin toss will be the Magic against the Hawks. Atlanta doesn't have an answer for Dwight Howard, but they also have too many offensive weapons for Orlando to keep in check. If Orlando's up-and-down season finds them playing substandard ball in the first round, Atlanta's determination and depth do have what it takes to upset the sunny boys in blue. However, Orlando's been there before. I have a feeling that the guys surrounding Howard won't let themselves play lackluster basketball. The city or Orlando may depend on it, for if the Magic find themselves exiting the playoffs after the first round, it surely won't help their chances of keeping cornerstone Dwight Howard after he becomes a free agent. This sense of urgency can definitely fuel a playoff appearance, but it just as easily can lead to follies (as the Dallas Mavericks have proven year after year). The difference between success and failure in a good match-up like Orlando and Atlanta is the will to play smart and together, and it's this that separates the two teams. Orlando's history of solid decision making and good team play should be the deciding factor against the sometimes sloppy, one-on-one scoring of the Atlanta Hawks. Despite the addition of the clever Kirk Hinrich, and with the plethora of scorers the Hawks have to throw at their opposition, they just don't have the winning formula to advance in the 2011 playoffs. Orlando should win in 6.
Stay tuned for our Eastern Conference projections for the second round and Conference Finals.
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